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ThinkTank Interest Rate Outlook Wk 26 2008

As fearlessly, or recklessly, predicted, variables rates have continued to settle down with both the 30 day and 90 day rates dropping slightly again this week to be placed at 7.6617% and 7.8167% respectively.

A swathe of data is forming in support of a slowing economy alongside survey after survey (no-one has rung me) clearly showing businesses and consumers are pulling in the reins with expectations of a substantial pull back in overall activity. The RBA is now seemingly adopting a more benign stance with regard to future hikes in official interest rates however, it won’t take much should the inflation outlook deteriorate further for rates to go higher. ANZ for one seems convinced its on the way in August.

Fixed rates are showing the effects of the wider consensus that inflation is going to take a while to beat before official rates come back down and therefore the range is staying comparatively high to cash and now vary between 8.01%-8.18% over the One-Five Years.